July 2026 projected hotter than normal in Greece and Northern Europe

Long‑range forecasts from eight major meteorological centres – ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo‑France, NCEP (US), DWD (Germany), CMCC (Italy), JMA (Japan) and BOM (Australia) – compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate that July 2026 will be warmer than the historical average across Northern Europe. Of the 400 scenarios examined, 92 % show a positive temperature anomaly, with an average increase of about +0.94 °C. The probability of a rise between 0‑1 °C is 49 %, between 1‑2 °C is 35 % and above 2 °C is 8 %.

The forecast maps show positive deviations throughout the continent, the strongest in Central Europe, and the same trend is expected for Greece. The agencies note that such long‑term projections carry considerable uncertainty, especially for daily and local conditions, but they are intended to illustrate the seasonal temperature trend.

These projections follow an observed May 2026 deviation of –0.38 °C from the forecasted +0.83 °C, underscoring the variability of the model outputs.