Kalshi and Polymarket face global bans as governments clamp down before 2026 World Cup

Prediction‑market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have seen explosive growth ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with analysts estimating an additional $3 billion to $10 billion in bets. Their rapid rise has prompted a wave of regulatory actions. Spain, Indonesia, India and Brazil have introduced temporary or permanent measures to block access to the platforms, treating the new financial contracts either as gambling or as securities that should fall under existing financial‑market rules.

The companies respond by tightening user‑verification, restricting registrations from sanctioned jurisdictions and increasing safeguards against market manipulation. Other startups such as Opinion Labs (backed by Binance co‑founder Changpeng Zhao’s YZi Labs) and Limitless (supported by Coinbase Ventures) are also expanding globally, exploiting legal ambiguities and using VPNs and cryptocurrencies to bypass local controls. India’s government has asked internet service providers to block the sites, citing illegal and blocked content.

Despite the crackdown, prediction markets remain legal in a patchwork of jurisdictions, highlighting the challenge for regulators to create a coherent framework for these emerging digital financial products.