Kalshi and Polymarket Surge as World Cup Boosts Prediction Markets

Prediction‑market platforms have experienced rapid growth since the FIFA World Cup began. Polymarket's soccer category volume jumped 300%, exceeding $2 billion in the first ten days of the tournament, while daily average trading volume rose from about $53 million to $220 million. Meanwhile, US‑regulated platform Kalshi saw its open‑interest cross the $1 billion mark for the first time and recorded a record $13.5 million in a single day of trading fees.

The surge has drawn regulatory attention. The CFTC is drafting its first federal framework for sports‑event contracts, with a public comment period ending July 27. Industry groups, including the American Gaming Association, are lobbying to limit or bar such contracts, arguing they bypass state and tribal gambling laws and cut tax revenue. The outcome will shape how prediction markets operate for future major sporting events, including the 2026 World Cup.