Kenya trade deficit nears Sh1 trillion as fuel and Chinese imports rise

Kenya’s merchandise trade deficit approached a record Sh1 trillion in the first half of 2026. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, the gap between exports and imports widened by 27.3 percent to Sh998.2 billion compared to the same period last year.

The deficit was driven largely by a 50.2 percent surge in fuel and lubricant imports, which rose to Sh412.6 billion. Central Bank of Kenya Governor Kamau Thugge noted that businesses engaged in the front-loading of imports due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While exports reached a record Sh632.3 billion, they were outpaced by a total import bill of Sh1.63 trillion.

Simultaneously, Kenya’s imports from China rose by 34.7 percent between January and May 2026, reaching Sh336.2 billion. This increase, driven by demand for machinery, steel, and construction materials for major infrastructure projects, has pushed China’s share of Kenya’s import market to a record 25.3 percent.