KNMI Study Finds Climate Change Makes European Droughts Up to Eleven Times More Likely

Researchers coordinated by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and World Weather Attribution report that rising temperatures have increased the probability of severe drought conditions across Europe by a factor of five to eleven compared with a climate‑neutral world. The study notes that rapid soil‑water evaporation, rather than reduced rainfall alone, drives the intensification, and it highlights recent “exceptional” or “extreme” dry spells in France, the Benelux region, the United Kingdom and south‑western Germany during April‑June. Job Dullaart of KNMI stresses the need to shift water‑management strategies toward greater retention, though Dutch flat terrain limits options.

In a separate paper, scientists from Stockholm University reconstruct climate conditions in the eastern Mediterranean during the Late Bronze Age. Their model shows that the most severe droughts of that era coincided with the alignment of multiple natural climate cycles, pushing the region past a critical hydro‑climatic threshold and contributing to the societal collapse around 3,200 years ago. Lead author Katherine Power describes the convergence of these cycles as a key driver of agricultural stress and food insecurity at the time.