Koalicja Obywatelska leads Polish polls but lacks majority

A new political poll conducted by the Institute for Market and Social Research (IBRiS) for Onet indicates that Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) would lead in a hypothetical parliamentary election with 27.5% of the vote. Law and Justice (PiS) follows in second place with 19.7%, while Konfederacja holds third with 13.1%.

Despite leading, KO would lack the ability to govern alone or even through a coalition with Lewica (The Left). A seat simulation by Onet Data suggests KO would secure 165 seats in the Sejm, while PiS would receive 120. A coalition between KO and Lewica would total only 200 seats, falling short of the 231 seats required for a majority.

Other parties mentioned include Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (8.3%), Lewica (8.3%), and Rozwój Plus (6%). Several groups, including Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (4.2%), Partia Razem (2.7%), and Polska 2050 (0.4%), would likely fall below the electoral threshold. The poll, conducted between August 25-27, 2026, shows a declared voter turnout of 54.3%.