Latvia: Experts predict potential minority government led by Apvienotais saraksts

Following recent election results, political experts suggest that a minority government led by the 'Apvienotais saraksts' (AS) party may be the most likely scenario for Latvia's next administration. Sanda Liepiņa, director of the public policy center 'Providus', and political scientist Juris Rozenvalds indicate that this model could allow AS to avoid certain conflicts with coalition partners by focusing on specific agreements regarding the budget and reforms rather than traditional ministerial distribution.

With 41 seats, AS holds significant influence, but forming a traditional coalition presents challenges. For instance, a coalition with the National Alliance (NA) would grant the NA decisive influence, as their 10 seats would be essential to maintaining a majority. Experts note that other political forces may not yet fully grasp how much the election results have shifted the landscape for government formation. While some predict a coalition between AS, NA, and 'Jaunā Vienotība' (JV), others emphasize that a minority government could allow AS to maintain control over ministries while seeking support from other parties on a case-by-case basis.