Latvia faces surge in Belarus‑driven migrant crossings, stirring Schengen concerns

Latvia’s eastern frontier with Belarus is experiencing a sharp rise in attempted illegal crossings, with 111 incidents recorded on 16 July alone, bringing the year‑to‑date total to 8,253. The influx, described by Latvian officials as part of a “hybrid campaign” linked to Belarus’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, is prompting fears of a broader security and humanitarian strain.

The pressure is spilling over to neighbouring Lithuania, where secondary migration through Latvia has risen fourfold, leading Lithuanian authorities to consider temporary border controls. Analysts warn that any reinstatement of internal Schengen checks could trigger similar measures across the bloc, affecting cross‑border workers, transport and trade. The situation comes ahead of Latvia’s parliamentary elections on 3 October, adding a political dimension to the border dilemma.

Latvian Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava said, “Today Latvia's border has become the main target,” while the ministry highlighted Belarus’s alleged intent to use migration as a tool of political pressure against the EU.