Lebanon faces political deadlock amid regional tensions

Lebanon is currently facing a period of political and security stagnation as it navigates tensions on its southern border and broader regional conflicts involving Iran and the United States. The country’s decision-making process is increasingly influenced by external factors, specifically the upcoming Israeli elections and the U.S. midterm elections.

Key domestic challenges include the future mandate of UNIFIL and the debate over the exclusivity of state weaponry. While Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has raised issues of sovereignty and the role of the Lebanese army before the international community in New York, Western powers maintain that a sustainable solution requires ending armed activity outside of state institutions.

Furthermore, political uncertainty persists as Speaker Nabih Berri has reportedly not received definitive answers from Hezbollah regarding the future of its weapons or guarantees against involvement in a third war. With strategic decisions often tied to Iranian calculations, the Lebanese political landscape remains in a state of freeze, leaving the southern front vulnerable to sudden escalation.