Lithium exploration cuts and battery‑recycling patent boom reshape supply chain

A S&P Global report shows lithium exploration spending fell 46% in 2025 to $595 million after previously exceeding $1 billion. The decline reflects an oversupply, moderated demand and falling prices, with junior firms slashing budgets by 57% while large miners keep modest growth and focus on known assets. Chile increased its exploration budget, whereas Australia posted the steepest decline.

The International Energy Agency notes lithium demand rose about 30% in 2024 and could expand five‑fold by 2040 driven by electric vehicles and storage. Prices have dropped more than 85% since 2022, cutting battery pack costs by 20% in 2024, yet the agency warns that insufficient exploration could create long‑term supply risks.

In parallel, the European Patent Office and IEA report a 42% average annual increase in battery‑recycling related patent families from 2017‑2023, outpacing manufacturing patents (16%) and the broader tech sector (2%). Asian applicants account for 63% of these filings, with China leading, while Europe emphasizes supportive regulation. With an estimated 1.2 million EV batteries reaching end‑of‑life in 2030 and 14 million by 2040, recycling advances are seen as a way to ease pressure on critical mineral supplies.