Lithium market volatility impacts European Lithium and Albemarle

The lithium sector is experiencing significant volatility driven by corporate restructuring and shifting market prices. Critical Metals is moving to increase its stake in the Tanbreez project in Greenland from 92.5 percent to 100 percent through a full takeover of European Lithium. Recent adjustments to the transaction structure, which now utilizes a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) with upper and lower limits for the exchange ratio, caused Critical Metals' shares to rise by nearly 19 percent in a single trading day in New York.

In contrast, major producer Albemarle is facing downward pressure. JPMorgan has lowered its price target for Albemarle from 160 to 140 US dollars, citing declining global lithium prices. Analysts have also significantly reduced EBITDA forecasts for 2026 and 2027. This pessimism is linked to falling lithium carbonate prices in China, which have dropped from an average of 24,810 US dollars per tonne in the second quarter to approximately 21,625 US dollars in the third quarter.