Lithuania conducts crisis simulations regarding Kaliningrad

Lithuania recently hosted crisis simulation exercises organized by the Baltic International Security Centre (BISC) and ISM University of Management and Economics. The drills, held from October 8 to 10, focused on three hypothetical crisis scenarios in Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, which officials described as a potential ‘Achilles heel’ for the country.

The scenarios assume a timeline in early 2027, triggered by attacks on Russian energy infrastructure that disrupt fuel supplies to the region. The first scenario involves socio-economic instability, including commodity shortages, rising prices, and mass migration toward Lithuania and Poland. It also includes potential military unrest due to fears of troops being redeployed to the Ukraine conflict.

The second scenario simulates a military mutiny where rebel units seize critical infrastructure, such as airports and airbases, and take the Kaliningrad governor hostage. The third scenario involves an industrial or environmental disaster. The exercises aim to highlight the roles of Lithuania, Poland, and neighboring nations in managing regional crises.