Mexico's 2027 elections see tight gubernatorial races and candidate jockeying

A July 2026 poll covering 17 Mexican states shows highly competitive gubernatorial contests ahead of the 2027 elections, with no single party dominating nationally. The PAN leads in Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Querétaro, Baja California and Sonora, while Morena tops in Zacatecas, Nuevo León, Tlaxcala, Michoacán, Sinaloa and Colima. The PV E leads in San Luis Potosí, and Movimiento Ciudadano is strongest in Campeche, Baja California Sur, Nayarit, Guerrero and Quintana Roo.

Within Morena, the internal race for the Baja California governorship pits former Tijuana mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz against senator Julieta Andrea Ramírez Padilla, both polling above 40 % in internal surveys. In Nuevo León, digital‑strength metrics rank Mariana Rodríguez Cantú and former Monterrey mayor Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas as the leading contenders, with the opposition candidate Adrián de la Garza trailing.

In the State of Mexico, analysts note the ruling 4T coalition retains a strong territorial base, while opposition parties (PRI, PAN, PRD, Movimiento Ciudadano) remain fragmented, limiting their chances in the June 2027 municipal and congressional elections. Movimiento Ciudadano also positions itself as the main opposition force in Quintana Roo, emphasizing a stand‑alone campaign without alliances.