started · updated
Brazil 2026 elections: Quaest polls show tight presidential race
Recent Quaest polling data reveals a highly competitive landscape for the 2026 Brazilian elections. In the presidential race, Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are locked in tight contests across several major states. In Rio de Janeiro, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 31% against Lula's 29% in a scenario without Pablo Marçal. In Mato Grosso do Sul, Flávio Bolsonaro holds a 33% to 27% advantage, while in Mato Grosso, he leads significantly with 43% compared to Lula's 26%. Conversely, Lula maintains strong leads in the Northeast, including Paraíba and Pernambuco.
Regional and state-level races also show significant movement. In the Federal District, Celina Leão leads the gubernatorial race with 34%, while Michelle Bolsonaro leads the Senate race with 25%. In Mato Grosso, Wellington Fagundes and Otaviano Pivetta are in a technical tie for the governorship. In Tocantins, Governor Wanderlei Barbosa maintains a high 83% approval rating.
Analysis from Arko Advice indicates that President Lula currently holds the second-worst positive approval rating among Brazilian presidents seeking reelection since redemocratization, with 33% rating his administration as good or great.
Entities
Arko Advice · Brazil · Eduardo Paes · Flávio Bolsonaro · Juliana Brizola · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Mato Grosso · Pablo Marçal · Partido Liberal · Partido dos Trabalhadores · Quaest · Ricardo Couto
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 4 SOURCES] In Rio de Janeiro, Flávio Bolsonaro has 31% and Lula has 29%. folhadoleste.com.br · www.moneyreport.com.br · www.metropoles.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] In the Federal District, Lula has 28% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 26%. dev.tnonline.com.br · tnonline.uol.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula are in a technical tie in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro. www.moneyreport.com.br · rdmonline.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Lula rescheduled a campaign event in Porto Alegre to Salvador due to rain forecasts.
- [● 4 SOURCES] In Minas Gerais, Flávio Bolsonaro has 31% and Lula has 30%. www.moneyreport.com.br · rdmonline.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Flávio Bolsonaro proposed the 'Ganha Ganha' program, which uses a ranking system to provide benefits like lower interest rates to citizens who meet certain criteria. www.bandab.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] In São Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro has 30% and Lula has 29%. www.moneyreport.com.br · rdmonline.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] In Mato Grosso, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 43% against Lula's 26%. www.reportermt.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] In the Federal District, Lula has 28% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 26%, representing a technical tie. dev.tnonline.com.br · tnonline.uol.com.br · rdmonline.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Lula has the second-worst positive approval rating among Brazilian presidents seeking reelection since redemocratization, with 33% rating him as good or great. www.cnnbrasil.com.br · contilnetnoticias.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In Rio de Janeiro, Flávio Bolsonaro has 31% and Lula has 29% in a scenario without Pablo Marçal. folhadoleste.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In the Federal District, Michelle Bolsonaro has 25% for the Senate. didigalvao.com.br