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Brazil presidential polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie FAST-MOVING
Recent polling data for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election shows a highly competitive race between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey indicates a technical tie in a simulated second round, with Lula at 47.7% and Bolsonaro at 47.4%. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 45.8% against Bolsonaro's 43.4%.
Regional variations are significant. In São Paulo, Quaest polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading the first round with 34% to Lula's 31%, while Tarcísio de Freitas also shows strong gubernatorial numbers. In Rio de Janeiro, Bolsonaro leads with 37% to Lula's 30%. Conversely, Lula maintains strong leads in Pernambuco and Ceará.
Political dynamics are shifting as the Progressistas (PP) party signals potential support for Bolsonaro in a second round. Meanwhile, the ongoing crisis involving the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and investigations related to Banco Master are impacting the campaign. Some analysts suggest the STF crisis may negatively affect Lula's campaign more than Bolsonaro's, according to AtlasIntel data.
Entities
AtlasIntel · Bloomberg · Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Quaest · Supreme Federal Court · Supremo Tribunal Federal · Tarcísio de Freitas
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 3 SOURCES] A national mobilization in support of Lula is scheduled for September 27. oconvergente.com.br · tribunadepetropolis.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The campaign is seeking neutrality from 'Centrão' parties to avoid a national endorsement of Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second round.
- [● 3 SOURCES] The presidential election is a contest between institutional defense and militia leadership. oconvergente.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Lula is planning campaign visits to Manaus and Belém during the final week of the election. oconvergente.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The PL has filed a legal action seeking the cancellation of Lula and Alckmin's candidacy registration, alleging misuse of public resources. informaparaiba.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] In a first-round poll, Lula holds 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro holds 33% with a 2% margin of error.
- [● 6 SOURCES] The survey interviewed 5,015 voters between September 17 and September 22. recordnewsma.com · gilbertoleda.com.br
- [● 7 SOURCES] The poll has a margin of error of one percentage point. recordnewsma.com · gilbertoleda.com.br · portaloinformante.com.br · www.bandab.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Renan Santos is in third place for the first round with 4.6% of the intention to vote.
- [● 2 SOURCES] In a runoff against Romeu Zema, Lula has 47.6% and Zema has 42.2%.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in a first-round scenario with 46.3% of valid votes against 43.9%.
- [● 5 SOURCES] In a potential second-round runoff, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 47.7% of the vote and Flávio Bolsonaro has 47.4%. recordnewsma.com · gilbertoleda.com.br