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Brazil 2026 Election: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie
New Datafolha polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election shows a tightening race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Nationally, Lula leads the first round with 39% of the vote compared to 35% for Bolsonaro, a gap that has narrowed to its smallest margin since May. In a potential second-round runoff, the two candidates are in a technical tie, with Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 44%.
Regional results show significant variation. In Rio de Janeiro, Flávio Bolsonaro leads both the first round (39% to 35%) and a projected second round (49% to 41%). Conversely, in Pernambuco, Lula holds a substantial lead with 55% against Bolsonaro's 24%. In Minas Gerais, the candidates are in a technical tie for both the first and second rounds. In the Distrito Federal, Bolsonaro leads with 40% to Lula's 32% in the first round.
Other candidates including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos follow with single-digit percentages. The polls also indicate that 75% of voters are already decided on their first-round choice. Additionally, both Lula and Bolsonaro face a 46% rejection rate among surveyed voters.
Entities
Augusto Cury · Brazil · Datafolha · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Supreme Federal Court · Supremo Tribunal Federal · Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 5 SOURCES] A second-round simulation between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro shows a technical tie with 46% and 44% respectively. alotatuape.com.br · maisoeste.com.br · jornaldiadia.com.br · www.mixvale.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] In Rio de Janeiro, Flávio Bolsonaro leads a second-round matchup against Lula with 49% to 41%. www.metropoles.com · fatoamazonico.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In Minas Gerais, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are in a technical tie with 37% and 35% respectively.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 75% of Brazilian voters are decided on their presidential vote for the first round. www.abcmais.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Augusto Cury is the third most mentioned candidate in the first-round poll with 6%. maisoeste.com.br · www.mixvale.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] In the national first-round presidential race, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 39% of the votes compared to 35% for Flávio Bolsonaro. alotatuape.com.br · maisoeste.com.br · www.mixvale.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Lula is in a technical tie with Augusto Cury in a second-round simulation, with 46% to 45%. alotatuape.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] The four-point difference between the leaders is within the two-point margin of error. alotatuape.com.br · maisoeste.com.br · www.mixvale.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] In Pernambuco, Lula leads the first-round race with 55% against 24% for Flávio Bolsonaro. veja.abril.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In Minas Gerais, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are in a technical tie with 37% and 35% respectively in the first round.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In the national first-round scenario including Pablo Marçal, Lula has 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 32%. alotatuape.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In Minas Gerais, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are in a technical tie with 46% and 45% respectively.