Brazil 2026 election: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro split regional polling leads

Recent polling data for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election shows a highly polarized race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Results vary significantly by region. In Pernambuco, Lula holds a substantial lead, with 55% of first-round intentions and a projected 61% in a second-round matchup against Bolsonaro.

Conversely, in Mato Grosso, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 43% of the vote compared to Lula’s 33% in a stimulated first-round scenario. In a second-round simulation for that state, Bolsonaro’s lead expands to 51% against 37% for Lula.

Nationally, some polls indicate a technical tie in a second-round scenario, with Lula at 46.5% and Bolsonaro at 44%. While Lula is viewed by some analysts as starting the campaign with more stability and a competitive advantage compared to the 2022 election cycle, his approval ratings have shown recent downward trends. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign includes proposals to reform the Supreme Federal Court (STF), including limits on individual ministerial decisions and changes to privileged forum rules.