Brazil presidential poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in statistical tie FAST-MOVING

Brazilian presidential election Lula Flávio Bolsonaro Quaest poll runoff scenario

A new Quaest poll indicates a tightening race in the Brazilian presidential election between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. In a simulated second-round runoff, Lula holds 43% of the vote compared to 40% for Bolsonaro, a three-point difference that falls within the poll's two-percentage-point margin of error.

In a first-round scenario, Lula maintains a more significant lead with 38% of the vote against Bolsonaro's 31%. Other candidates, including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado, trail with 4% each. The poll also highlights high rejection rates for both leading candidates, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 54% and Lula at 52%.

The survey, conducted between August 10 and 13 among 2,004 voters, comes as the official campaign period approaches. While Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap in recent weeks, the race remains highly polarized.

Entities

Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Globo · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Quaest · Renan Santos · Ronaldo Caiado

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[● 14 SOURCES] In a potential second-round runoff, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds 43% of the vote compared to 40% for Flávio Bolsonaro. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · oantagonista.com.br · n.com.do · www.aljazeera.com · didigalvao.com.br · +9 more
[● 14 SOURCES] The Quaest poll surveyed 2,004 people between August 10 and August 13. oantagonista.com.br · www.aljazeera.com · didigalvao.com.br · www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · jamaicainquirer.com · +9 more
[● 7 SOURCES] Candidates Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each received 4% of the vote in the first-round scenario. n.com.do · www.aljazeera.com · jamaicainquirer.com · dominicanrepublicpost.com · barbadosgazette.com · +2 more
[● 14 SOURCES] The difference between the two candidates is within the poll's two-percentage-point margin of error. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · oantagonista.com.br · n.com.do · www.aljazeera.com · didigalvao.com.br · +9 more
[● 7 SOURCES] In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 38% of the vote to Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. n.com.do · www.aljazeera.com · jamaicainquirer.com · dominicanrepublicpost.com · barbadosgazette.com · +2 more
[● 6 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has a 54% rejection rate, while Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a 52% rejection rate. oantagonista.com.br · n.com.do · ndmais.com.br · elnuevodiario.com.do · en.mercopress.com · +1 more