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Brazil presidential race: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie
A new Datafolha poll indicates a technical tie in the Brazilian presidential race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. In the first round, Lula leads with 40% of the vote to Bolsonaro's 36%. In a simulated second round, the margin narrows, with Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 45%, both figures remaining within the two-percentage-point margin of error.
Other candidates trailing the leaders include writer Augusto Cury with 5%, Ronaldo Caiado with 4%, and Renan Santos with 3%. The poll, which surveyed 2,002 voters, reflects a highly polarized electorate ten days before the October 4 election.
To counter the recent growth of Flávio Bolsonaro in the polls, the Lula campaign is shifting focus toward evangelical female voters and the regulation of online betting. The administration intends to sign a provisional measure to prohibit betting houses to distance the government from the gambling industry.
Entities
Augusto Cury · Brazil · Datafolha · Flávio Bolsonaro · Folha de S. Paulo · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · TV Globo
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 3 SOURCES] Augusto Cury follows the leaders in the first round with 5% of the votes. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · notiespartano.com · www.zvornikdanas.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Lula campaign plans to target evangelical women and combat online betting to counter Flávio Bolsonaro's growth. www.metropoles.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] In a first-round poll, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 40% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro's 36%. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · notiespartano.com · www.zvornikdanas.com · nahoradanoticia.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] In a simulated second round, Lula holds 47% of the votes compared to 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · notiespartano.com · www.zvornikdanas.com · nahoradanoticia.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] A provisional measure (MP) to prohibit betting houses is expected to be signed on September 24, 2026. www.metropoles.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · notiespartano.com · www.zvornikdanas.com · nahoradanoticia.com.br