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Brazil presidential race shows technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro FAST-MOVING
Recent polling data from Quaest and Nexus/BTG indicates a highly competitive race for the Brazilian presidency. In the first round, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with approximately 39% to 42% of voting intentions, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 34% to 37%.
Simulations for a second-round runoff show a technical tie between the two candidates. Quaest reports a dead heat with both candidates at 42%, while Nexus/BTG indicates a narrow margin with Lula at 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 44%.
Demographic and religious breakdowns reveal distinct voting patterns. Lula maintains a significant advantage among female voters and Catholic constituents, whereas Flávio Bolsonaro holds a lead among evangelical voters. Additionally, rejection rates remain high for both, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 51% and Lula at 48%.
Entities
Augusto Cury · BTG Pactual · BTG/Nexus · Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Nexus · Nexus/BTG Pactual · Quaest · Real Time Big Data · Romeu Zema · Ronaldo Caiado
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 11 SOURCES] In the first round, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 42% of voting intentions according to Nexus/BTG. imprensapublica.com.br · ne9.com.br · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · cardinot.com.br · didigalvao.com.br · +4 more
- [● 4 SOURCES] In a simulation against Romeu Zema, Lula holds 48% compared to Zema's 39%.
- [● 11 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has 37% of voting intentions in the first round according to Nexus/BTG. imprensapublica.com.br · ne9.com.br · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · cardinot.com.br · didigalvao.com.br · +4 more
- [● 16 SOURCES] The survey interviewed 2,000 voters via telephone between September 25 and 27. imprensapublica.com.br · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · cardinot.com.br · didigalvao.com.br · maisfm.com · +6 more
- [● 12 SOURCES] In a potential second round against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula has 46% and Bolsonaro has 44%, a technical tie. imprensapublica.com.br · cardinot.com.br · didigalvao.com.br · ndmais.com.br · www.tribunapr.com.br · +3 more
- [● 6 SOURCES] Lula is in a technical tie with Ronaldo Caiado in a second-round simulation, with 46% to 42%. imprensapublica.com.br · didigalvao.com.br
- [● 16 SOURCES] The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points. imprensapublica.com.br · www.cnnbrasil.com.br · cardinot.com.br · didigalvao.com.br · maisfm.com · +6 more
- [● 2 SOURCES] 87% of voters who chose a candidate in the first round say their decision is final.
- [● 6 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has a 51% rejection rate, while Lula has a 48% rejection rate. cardinot.com.br · ndmais.com.br · tribunadonorte.com.br · www.diariodeaparecida.com.br · imprensapublica.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] 46% approve of the Lula government and 49% disapprove according to Nexus/BTG. cardinot.com.br · www.diariodeaparecida.com.br · dev.tnonline.com.br · eassim.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Lula leads with 47% among Catholics, while Flávio Bolsonaro has 33%. jornalocal.com.br
- [● 6 SOURCES] In a second-round simulation, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are tied at 42% each. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · cn7.com.br · sbtnews.sbt.com.br · nfnoticias.com.br · rdmonline.com.br · +1 more