Lula Maintains Lead Over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil 2026 Election Polls
Multiple recent polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva retaining a lead over Senate candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential race. In the first‑round scenario, Lula is recorded at roughly 39 % of voter intention, while Bolsonaro trails at about 30 %. Simulated second‑round match‑ups also place Lula ahead, with 44 % versus Bolsonaro’s 39 %. The gap between the two candidates has narrowed from a 12‑point advantage for Lula in July to about nine points in the latest surveys.
Despite the lead, public sentiment on Lula’s continuation in office is mixed: 55 % of respondents say the president does not deserve another term, down from 59 % a month earlier. Flávio Bolsonaro’s support has risen modestly, gaining four percentage points since the previous poll.
These findings come from the Genial/Quaest and Ideia institutes, each interviewing around 2,000 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of two points and a 95 % confidence level.
Entities: Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Genial/Quaest · Ideia · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Renan Santos · Romeu Zema · Ronaldo Caiado
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro’s support increased by four percentage points since the previous poll. (Genial/Quaest data)
- [● 2 SOURCES] The gap between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed from 12 points in July to about nine points in the latest poll. (Genial/Quaest analysis)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Lula’s approval rating fell from 45 % to 41 % over the past month. (Quaest poll)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Lula leads the first‑round poll with about 39 % support while Flávio Bolsonaro has about 30 %. (Genial/Quaest and Ideia surveys)
- [● 2 SOURCES] In simulated second‑round match‑ups, Lula obtains 44 % versus Flávio Bolsonaro’s 39 %. (Genial/Quaest surveys)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 55 % of Brazilians say Lula does not deserve another term, down from 59 % a month earlier. (Quaest poll)