Brazil's 2026 presidential race: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck‑and‑neck

Multiple recent polls show Brazil’s 2026 presidential contest between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) as tightly balanced. A Datafolha survey in São Paulo recorded both candidates at about 35 % in the first‑round scenario and 43 % (Lula) versus 46 % (Flávio) in a simulated second round, a technical tie within the two‑point margin of error. A nationwide Gerp poll gave each of them 36 % in the first round and 45 % for Flávio against 42 % for Lula in a second‑round simulation, also within the error band. The Meio/Ideia poll placed Lula ahead with 40.4 % versus 32 % for Flávio in a first‑round list‑stimulated scenario and 45 % versus 40 % in a second‑round matchup. Across surveys, both candidates register high rejection rates – roughly 46‑49 % for Lula and 40‑43 % for Flávio – making voter choice largely a decision of exclusion. Gender patterns are pronounced: women favor Lula (around 50 % to 34 % for Flávio), while men lean toward Flávio (about 46 % to 39 %). Regional data show Lula leading strongly in Maranhão (60 % to 22 %). Analysts note the election’s volatility, with the race shifting between narrow leads and technical ties, and highlight the pivotal role of female voters and older demographics for Lula’s coalition.