Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in BTG/Nexus poll for Brazil 2026 presidential race
The latest BTG/Nexus poll for Brazil’s 2026 presidential election shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 41 % of voter intentions in the first round, while Senate candidate Flávio Bolsonaro registers 37 %. In simulated second‑round match‑ups, Lula leads with 46 % against Bolsonaro’s 45 %, a technical tie within the poll’s ±2‑point margin of error. Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado trails at 5 % and other candidates remain in single‑digit territory. Both Lula and Bolsonaro have a 49 % rejection rate, while the government’s approval stands at 47 % with 48 % disapproval. The survey also notes that 75 % of respondents say their vote is already decided and unlikely to change. The poll, conducted by telephone with 2,002 respondents between 31 July and 2 August, is registered with the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR‑02874/2026. The results come as the Workers’ Party (PT) has officially confirmed Lula’s candidacy and the campaign period opens on 16 August.
Entities: BTG Pactual · BTG/Nexus · Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Geraldo Alckmin · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Nexus Institute · Nexus/BTG · Renan Santos · Romeu Zema · Ronaldo Caiado
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 12 SOURCES] Lula has 41% of first‑round voting intentions in Nexus/BTG poll. (Nexus/BTG poll)
- [● 12 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation, Lula receives 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro 45% of voting intentions. (Nexus/BTG poll)
- [● 3 SOURCES] 75% of voters say their voting decision is already fixed and will not change. (Nexus/BTG poll)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 38% of voters say a partner influences their vote; influence is higher among men (40%) than women (36%). (Datafolha survey)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 38% of voters say journalists influence their vote, with 54% of 16‑24‑year‑olds reporting such influence. (Datafolha survey)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Datafolha survey finds 40% of men say friends influence their vote, compared with 31% of women. (Datafolha survey)
- [● 12 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has 37% of first‑round voting intentions in Nexus/BTG poll. (Nexus/BTG poll)
- [● 10 SOURCES] The margin of error of the poll is ±2 percentage points, making Lula and Flávio technically tied. (BTG/Nexus poll)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Renan Santos (Missão) has 4% of first‑round voting intentions in the Nexus/BTG poll. (Nexus/BTG poll)
- [● 9 SOURCES] Ronaldo Caiado has 5 % of voter intentions in the first round. (BTG/Nexus poll)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Government approval is 47% and rejection 48% among Brazilian voters. (Nexus/BTG poll)
- [● 4 SOURCES] 43% of voters consider the government bad or terrible. (Nexus/BTG poll)