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Lula maintains lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in national and state polls
Recent polling by Atlas/Bloomberg, AtlasIntel and Genial/Quaest shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. In the first‑round national survey Lula recorded 44.9 % to Bolsonaro’s 35.8 %. All second‑round simulations give Lula a consistent advantage, most often 49.2 % versus 42.9 % for Bolsonaro. State‑level polls echo the gap: in Bahia Lula leads 52 % to 18 %; in Ceará 55 % to 22 %; and in Pará 38 % to 31 %. A separate São Paulo poll shows a tighter contest, with Bolsonaro at 34 % and Lula at 30 % for the first round and a projected second‑round win for Bolsonaro (40 % to 35 %). The same national surveys flag Bolsonaro as the most rejected candidate (≈ 53 % rejection) while Lula’s rejection sits just under 50 %. Among voters who identify as independent, Lula enjoys a 16.5‑point lead over Bolsonaro.
Entities
Atlas Bloomberg · Atlas/Bloomberg · AtlasIntel · AtlasIntel/Bloomberg · Bahia · Bloomberg · Brazil · Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) · Federal Police of Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Genial · Genial/Quaest
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In São Paulo, a Genial/Quaest poll shows Flávio at 34% and Lula at 30% first‑round intentions. valor.globo.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has a rejection rate of 52.9 %, higher than Lula's 49.4 %.
- [● 2 SOURCES] In a first‑round simulation Lula has 44.9 % support while Flávio Bolsonaro has 35.8 %. ndmais.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey interviewed 5,021 respondents between July 22‑27, with a margin of error of ±1 percentage point and a 95 % confidence level, and is registered with the TSE under BR‑086
- [● 3 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation Lula has 49.2 % support while Flávio Bolsonaro has 42.9 %. fatoamazonico.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] 7.9 % of respondents would cast a blank, null or undecided vote in the second‑round simulation. fatoamazonico.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In the first‑round simulation, blank and null votes total 0.6 % of respondents. ndmais.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Nationwide, Lula holds 44.9% first‑round support in AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll. www.congressoemfoco.com.br · exame.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In a second‑round simulation versus Ronaldo Caiado, Lula receives 48.2% and Caiado 38.9%. www.polemicaparaiba.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Flávio Bolsonaro has 31% voter intention in Pará according to Genial/Quaest. news.folhadoprogresso.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In a second‑round simulation versus Renan Santos, Lula receives 47.6% and Santos 30.2%. www.polemicaparaiba.com.br
- [● 7 SOURCES] In second‑round simulations, Lula receives 49.2 % and Flávio Bolsonaro 42.9 %. www.polemicaparaiba.com.br · www.congressoemfoco.com.br · blogdapolo.com.br · primeirojornal.com.br · semanaon.com.br