Lula leads Brazil's 2026 presidential poll, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro
The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released on 29 July shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ahead of Senate candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential race. In the first‑round scenario Lula holds 44.9% of voting intention versus 35.8% for Flávio, a nine‑point gap. In a simulated second round Lula leads with 49.2% against Flávio’s 42.9%, a six‑point advantage.
Flávio Bolsonaro registers the highest rejection rate among the candidates at 52.9%, higher than Lula’s 49.4%. Regional patterns reveal Lula commanding 65.8% of the vote in the Northeast, while Flávio dominates among evangelical voters (51.5% vs Lula’s 22.1%) and leads in the South with 55.9% support.
Additional poll simulations confirm Lula’s lead against other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and Renan Santos. The campaign dynamics include Flávio’s demand to participate only in presidential debates that feature Lula, a condition that could shape the upcoming debate schedule.
Entities: AtlasIntel · AtlasIntel/Bloomberg · Bloomberg · Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) · Flávio Bolsonaro · Genial/Quaest · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · São Paulo · Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In São Paulo, a Genial/Quaest poll shows Flávio at 34% and Lula at 30% first‑round intentions. (São Paulo poll)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has a rejection rate of 52.9 %, higher than Lula's 49.4 %. (AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll (July 22‑27).)
- [● 2 SOURCES] In a first‑round simulation Lula has 44.9 % support while Flávio Bolsonaro has 35.8 %. (AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll (July 22‑27, 5,021 respondents).)
- [● 3 SOURCES] The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey interviewed 5,021 respondents between July 22‑27, with a margin of error of ±1 percentage point and a 95 % confidence level, and is registered with the TSE under BR‑086 (AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll methodology description.)
- [● 3 SOURCES] In a second‑round simulation Lula has 49.2 % support while Flávio Bolsonaro has 42.9 %. (AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll (July 22‑27, 5,021 respondents).)
- [● 2 SOURCES] 7.9 % of respondents would cast a blank, null or undecided vote in the second‑round simulation. (AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll (July 22‑27).)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In the first‑round simulation, blank and null votes total 0.6 % of respondents. (AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll (July 22‑27).)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Nationwide, Lula holds 44.9% first‑round support in AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll. (05f6c6b8-b524-4558-b9bd-371e5bfa5e59)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In a second‑round simulation versus Ronaldo Caiado, Lula receives 48.2% and Caiado 38.9%. (4c656721-76ba-42e8-8fba-325418c80703)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Flávio Bolsonaro has 31% voter intention in Pará according to Genial/Quaest. (ca57f0b9-5dc0-463a-b740-8bf7ffa1ca7c)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In a second‑round simulation versus Renan Santos, Lula receives 47.6% and Santos 30.2%. (4c656721-76ba-42e8-8fba-325418c80703)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro records 35.8% first‑round support in the same AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll. (05f6c6b8-b524-4558-b9bd-371e5bfa5e59)