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[POLITICS] · Brazil · 90 sources

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Lula leads 2026 presidential polls amid competitive race

Recent polling data for the 2026 Brazilian elections shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a lead in several scenarios. In a first-round stimulated poll by BTG Pactual/Nexus, Lula holds 40% compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 35%. A CNT/MDA poll places Lula at 42.4% and Bolsonaro at 28.7% for the first round, with a potential second-round lead of 48% to 39.1%.

Second-round simulations show varying results: Gerp reports a technical tie with Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 43%, while Palver shows them tied at 46% each. BTG Pactual/Nexus indicates a narrow lead for Lula with 47% against 44% for Bolsonaro.

In regional races, Tarcísio de Freitas leads the São Paulo gubernatorial race with 51% against Fernando Haddad's 34%. For the Senate in São Paulo, Simone Tebet leads with 27%, followed by Marina Silva at 23%. In Paraná, Sergio Moro leads the gubernatorial race with 45.7%.

Political activity is intensifying as candidates prepare for the 2026 cycle. Flávio Bolsonaro has emphasized a strategy to build a center-right majority in the Senate to counter the current administration and the Supreme Federal Court. Meanwhile, Lula is beginning a series of campaign recordings to support allied candidates for state governments and the Senate.

Entities

BTG Pactual · Brazil · Fernando Haddad · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Marina Silva · Nexus · Romeu Zema · Ronaldo Caiado · Simone Tebet · TSE · Tarcísio de Freitas

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Sources

Crise de confiança - Jornal Mantiqueira [www.jornalmantiqueira.com.br]
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