started · updated
Lula leads 2026 presidential polls amid competitive race
Recent polling data for the 2026 Brazilian elections shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a lead in several scenarios. In a first-round stimulated poll by BTG Pactual/Nexus, Lula holds 40% compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 35%. A CNT/MDA poll places Lula at 42.4% and Bolsonaro at 28.7% for the first round, with a potential second-round lead of 48% to 39.1%.
Second-round simulations show varying results: Gerp reports a technical tie with Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 43%, while Palver shows them tied at 46% each. BTG Pactual/Nexus indicates a narrow lead for Lula with 47% against 44% for Bolsonaro.
In regional races, Tarcísio de Freitas leads the São Paulo gubernatorial race with 51% against Fernando Haddad's 34%. For the Senate in São Paulo, Simone Tebet leads with 27%, followed by Marina Silva at 23%. In Paraná, Sergio Moro leads the gubernatorial race with 45.7%.
Political activity is intensifying as candidates prepare for the 2026 cycle. Flávio Bolsonaro has emphasized a strategy to build a center-right majority in the Senate to counter the current administration and the Supreme Federal Court. Meanwhile, Lula is beginning a series of campaign recordings to support allied candidates for state governments and the Senate.
Entities
BTG Pactual · Brazil · Fernando Haddad · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Marina Silva · Nexus · Romeu Zema · Ronaldo Caiado · Simone Tebet · TSE · Tarcísio de Freitas
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 7 SOURCES] In a second-round simulation against Romeu Zema, Lula holds 47% to Zema's 40%. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +1 more
- [● 9 SOURCES] In a second-round simulation, Lula leads with 47% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 44%, a margin within the 2% error rate. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +2 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Evangelical voters show a 63% rejection rate toward President Lula.
- [● 9 SOURCES] Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds 35% of voter intentions in the first round. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +2 more
- [● 2 SOURCES] In a second-round scenario within state capitals, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 55% to 35%. www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · correiodobrasil.com.br
- [● 9 SOURCES] In a stimulated first-round scenario, President Lula holds 40% of voter intentions. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +2 more
- [● 10 SOURCES] The BTG/Nexus poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under code BR-08428/2026. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +2 more
- [● 9 SOURCES] Ronaldo Caiado holds 5% of voting intentions in the first round. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +2 more
- [● 3 SOURCES] In a second-round simulation against Renan Santos, Lula holds 46% to Santos' 37%. correiodobrasil.com.br · caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Lucas Ribeiro announced Lígia Feliciano as his vice-governor candidate in Paraíba.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Mailza Assis and Jéssica Sales presented a government plan for Acre focusing on education, health, and security. oaltoacre.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Gladson Cameli and Jorge Viana are tied at 22% for the first Senate vote in Acre.