Lula leads 2026 first-round polls as Flávio Bolsonaro remains a close second
New polling data from BTG Pactual/Nexus regarding the 2026 Brazilian presidential election indicates a highly polarized landscape. In the stimulated first-round scenario, President Luiz Inácio Lula holds 40% of voter intentions, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 35%. Other candidates include Ronaldo Caiado at 5%, Renan Santos at 4%, and Romeu Zema at 3%.
In potential second-round runoffs, the race remains extremely tight. Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro with 47% to 44%, a margin that falls within the poll's 2% margin of error. Lula also maintains advantages in simulated runoffs against Romeu Zema (47% to 40%) and Renan Santos (46% to 37%).
Demographic and geographic trends show significant divides. Lula demonstrates much stronger support in state capitals, where he leads Flávio Bolsonaro 55% to 35% in a second-round scenario, whereas the gap narrows or reverses in rural interior regions. Additionally, the poll highlights a religious divide: Flávio Bolsonaro leads significantly among evangelical voters, securing 58% in a second-round simulation compared to Lula's 32%. Lula maintains higher support among Catholics and those with no religious affiliation.
Entities
BTG Pactual · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Nexus · TSE · Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 5 SOURCES] In a second-round simulation against Romeu Zema, Lula holds 47% to Zema's 40%. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · www.ocafezinho.com
- [● 6 SOURCES] In a second-round simulation, Lula leads with 47% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 44%, a margin within the 2% error rate. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +1 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Evangelical voters show a 63% rejection rate toward President Lula. www.em.com.br
- [● 6 SOURCES] Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holds 35% of voter intentions in the first round. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +1 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In a second-round scenario within state capitals, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 55% to 35%. www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br
- [● 6 SOURCES] In a stimulated first-round scenario, President Lula holds 40% of voter intentions. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +1 more
- [● 7 SOURCES] The BTG/Nexus poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under code BR-08428/2026. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +2 more
- [● 6 SOURCES] Ronaldo Caiado holds 5% of voting intentions in the first round. caririeisso.com.br · portaltucuma.com.br · sinalnews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · opinioes.folha1.com.br · +1 more