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Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro lead 2026 presidential polls in Brazil
Recent polling data from Indexa and Quaest indicates a highly polarized and competitive race for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. In a primary first-round scenario, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 39% of the vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 34%. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, hold smaller shares of the electorate.
In potential second-round runoff scenarios, Lula maintains a lead, securing 46% of the vote against Flávio Bolsonaro's 41%. The data also highlights significant regional and demographic divides: Lula shows strength among women, Catholic voters, and residents of the North and Northeast, while Flávio Bolsonaro leads among men, Evangelical voters, and in the South and Central-West regions.
Key battleground states, including São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro, show technical ties between the two main candidates. Additionally, both candidates face high rejection rates, with 49% of voters stating they would never vote for either Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro. Meanwhile, President Lula has signaled intentions to expand digital platform regulation as part of his reelection platform.
Entities
Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Indexa Pesquisas · Instituto Indexa Pesquisas · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Quaest · Romeu Zema · Ronaldo Caiado · Tribunal Superior Eleitoral
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 7 SOURCES] The survey margin of error is 2.2 percentage points. www.cnnbrasil.com.br · www.estadao.com.br · oconvergente.com.br · blogdomagno.com.br · srzd.com · +2 more
- [DISPUTED] In the first-round scenario, Lula has 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 34%. www.cnnbrasil.com.br · oconvergente.com.br · blogdomagno.com.br · srzd.com · horadopovo.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro holds 41% of the vote in a potential second-round runoff against Lula. oconvergente.com.br · www.estadao.com.br · horadopovo.com.br
- [● 5 SOURCES] Renan Santos holds 4% of the vote in the first-round scenario. www.cnnbrasil.com.br · oconvergente.com.br · blogdomagno.com.br · srzd.com · horadopovo.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] The survey interviewed 2,000 voters via telephone between August 20 and 23. www.cnnbrasil.com.br · oconvergente.com.br · srzd.com · horadopovo.com.br
- [● 5 SOURCES] Ronaldo Caiado holds 5% of the vote in the first-round scenario. www.cnnbrasil.com.br · oconvergente.com.br · blogdomagno.com.br · srzd.com · horadopovo.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] Lula leads a potential second-round runoff with 46% of the vote. oconvergente.com.br · www.estadao.com.br · horadopovo.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] Lula leads against Romeu Zema with 45% to 34% in a second-round scenario. oconvergente.com.br · www.estadao.com.br · horadopovo.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 49% of voters say they would never vote for either Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro. jornalpequeno.com.br