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Brazil presidential race: Lula leads first round in BTG/Nexus poll FAST-MOVING
A new BTG/Nexus poll released on August 17, 2026, shows a highly divided Brazil as presidential campaigns officially begin. In a simulated first round, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 41% of the vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 36%. Other candidates include Ronaldo Caiado at 5%, with Renan Santos and Romeu Zema each at 4%.
In second-round runoff scenarios, Lula maintains a lead against all major contenders, though the margins vary. He holds a technical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro (47% to 44%) and Ronaldo Caiado (45% to 42%).
The poll also reflects public sentiment regarding the current administration and the economy. Approximately 42% of voters rate the Lula government as bad or terrible, while 34% rate it as great or good. Regarding the economy, 53% of respondents describe the current situation as bad or terrible, while 17% consider it great or good. Public concern is currently split between public health and public security as the nation's primary issues.
Entities
BTG/Nexus · Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Ronaldo Caiado
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [DISPUTED] Lula has 41% of the vote intention in the first round. revistaforum.com.br · www.lospecialegiornale.it · pontanegranews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · politicaaovivo.com
- [● 6 SOURCES] In a second-round runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula leads 47% to 44%. www.em.com.br · revistaforum.com.br · www.lospecialegiornale.it · pontanegranews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · +1 more
- [● 3 SOURCES] 34% of voters rate the Lula government as great or good. tribunadepetropolis.com.br · dev.tnonline.com.br · www.metropoles.com
- [DISPUTED] Flávio Bolsonaro has 36% of the vote intention in the first round. revistaforum.com.br · www.lospecialegiornale.it · pontanegranews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br · politicaaovivo.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] 42% of voters rate the Lula government as bad or terrible. tribunadepetropolis.com.br · dev.tnonline.com.br · www.metropoles.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Lula's personal approval rating is 47%, while 48% disapprove. www.metropoles.com · tribunadepetropolis.com.br · dev.tnonline.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] In a second-round runoff against Ronaldo Caiado, Lula leads 45% to 42%. www.em.com.br · revistaforum.com.br · pontanegranews.com.br · www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br
- [● 8 SOURCES] The BTG/Nexus poll was released on August 17, 2026. tribunadepetropolis.com.br · dev.tnonline.com.br · www.em.com.br · revistaforum.com.br · www.metropoles.com · +3 more