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Brazil 2026 Elections: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro split lead in new polls
New polling data from BTG/Nexus regarding the 2026 Brazilian presidential election shows a shift in the competitive landscape. In the first round, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 39% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 35%. However, in a second-round simulation, the positions invert, with Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula 46% to 45%.
Political tensions have escalated as Flávio Bolsonaro has linked Lula to Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. This criticism follows controversies involving leaked messages between Moraes and the former president of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro. Bolsonaro has used campaign rallies to denounce what he describes as a 'consortium' between the judiciary and the current administration.
In other electoral developments, a Quaest poll for the Senate race in São Paulo shows a tie between Guilherme Derrite and Marina Silva at 14%, with Simone Tebet at 12%. Additionally, campaign finance data from the TSE indicates that Flávio Bolsonaro leads presidential fundraising with R$ 44.3 million, followed by Lula with R$ 35.9 million.
Entities
Alexandre de Moraes · Aloizio Mercadante · Augusto Cury · BTG/Nexus · Banco Master · Brazil · Daniel Vorcaro · Edinho Silva · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Lula · Quaest
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 2 SOURCES] In a stimulated first-round poll, Lula has 36% of the vote and Flávio Bolsonaro has 29%.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] President Lula restricted his campaign leadership to a core group of four people.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Lula's rejection rate is 53%.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro stated he is campaigning while wearing a bulletproof vest.
- [● 8 SOURCES] Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are in a technical tie for the second round with 41% each. contextohn.com · mahoje.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro claimed he and his allies will be targets of a ‘third stab’ during the campaign.
- [● 5 SOURCES] Augusto Cury holds third place in the first round with 8% in the Quaest poll. contextohn.com · mahoje.com.br
- [● 6 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has 29% of voting intentions in the first round. contextohn.com · mahoje.com.br
- [● 6 SOURCES] In the first round, Lula has 36% of voting intentions. contextohn.com · mahoje.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro has a rejection rate of 55%.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] 50% of Brazilians disapprove of Lula's government, while 43% approve. ubirataonline.com.br
- [● 11 SOURCES] In the first-round presidential race, Lula has 36% of voting intentions and Flávio Bolsonaro has 29%. contextohn.com · www.jornalfolhadoestado.com · sinalnews.com.br · teixeiranews.com.br · abceconomia.co · +1 more