Lula's 2026 Re‑election Chances Rise to 60% per Eurasia Group Forecast

The political risk consultancy Eurasia Group updated its outlook for Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, raising the probability that incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be re‑elected from 55% to 60%. The adjustment reflects a rebound in Lula’s approval rating, which has climbed back above 47% after dipping to 44.6% in late April. Eurasia notes that high approval levels before an election historically favor incumbents.

The firm attributes the improvement to a mix of factors: recovery in key economic indicators such as food‑price inflation, the rollout of social measures like the Desenrola 2.0 program, subsidies for electricity and cooking‑gas, and a proposed end to the "6×1" tax scale. It also highlights a reduced risk of external shocks, citing the stability of the US‑Iran agreement. Nevertheless, Eurasia lists four variables that could still alter the outlook: further shifts in Lula’s approval, developments in the Bank Master investigation, the emergence of a new right‑wing challenger, and the quality of campaign strategies.

While Lula is now seen as the favorite, the consultancy warns that the race remains competitive, especially on issues of public security and corruption, which continue to dominate voter concerns.