Macerata province faces significant population decline by 2050

Projections from Istat indicate a significant demographic shift in the province of Macerata through 2050. Under a median scenario, the population is expected to decrease from 246,137 residents in early 2025 to 225,178 by 2050, representing a net loss of 20,958 people. This decline is comparable to the total population of a city the size of Recanati.

The demographic structure is also set to age rapidly. The population of residents aged 0-19 is projected to drop from 40,975 to 29,943, while the number of residents aged 80 and over is expected to rise from 19,825 to 31,458. In many areas, the elderly population is expected to outnumber the youth.

While most municipalities face contraction, Montecosaro and Porto Recanati are projected to see growth of 2% and 8.4%, respectively. Conversely, Camerino could see a 30% population loss, and Tolentino a decrease of approximately 25.1%. Other notable declines are expected in Cingoli, Montecassiano, and Matelica.