Marmara earthquake: New geological model suggests seabed structures may limit rupture

Geoscientist Professor Osman Bektaş has proposed a new seismic model for the expected Marmara earthquake, suggesting that the geological structures of the seabed may mitigate the severity of a potential rupture. Analyzing data from a 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Marmara region in 2025, Bektaş noted that the rupture began on a strong ridge west of the Kumburgaz Basin, traveled through the basin, and dissipated at an eastern ridge.

The research highlights a mechanism known as “creep” (sürünme). While strong ridges accumulate seismic tension and act as triggers for ruptures, the basin areas—characterized by higher concentrations of gas and hot fluids—exhibit a soft sliding motion. This seismic creep can act as a brake, slowing or stopping a rapid fault rupture.

Bektaş’s findings suggest that the widely held scenario of a single, continuous rupture exceeding magnitude 7.0 may need to be re-evaluated. He summarized the interaction between these geological features as: “The ridge starts it, the basin carries it, and another ridge stops it.”