Marmara Sea Earthquake Scenarios Highlighted by Prof. Osman Bektaş

Geology expert Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş examined the fault system beneath the Marmara Sea following the February 6, 2024 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. He outlined two possible earthquake scenarios for the region that could affect Istanbul.

In the first scenario, a single large rupture overcoming the locked segment of the North Anatolian Fault could generate a magnitude‑7 or greater quake. Bektaş explained that the Anatolian Plate’s westward motion creates a compression zone between İzmit and Şarköy, which would need to accumulate enough energy for such a break.

The second scenario envisions the accumulated strain being released gradually through multiple magnitude‑6‑plus events combined with fault creep (slow slip). He noted that the central part of the Marmara fault is weaker and more lubricated, allowing energy to dissipate over time rather than in one massive shock. Bektaş also warned that, based on historical slip rates, a magnitude‑7+ earthquake could be theoretically possible after roughly 250 years of strain buildup.