Marmara Seismic Cluster Prompts Earthquake Alert from Professor Osman Bektaş

Professor Osman Bektaş, a seismology expert, evaluated a recent micro‑earthquake cluster in the Central Marmara Basin. He warned that the swarm, occurring at depths of 6‑9 km with magnitudes below 3.5, is not by itself a clear sign of an imminent large quake, but it must be closely monitored over the next 3‑7 days. Bektaş said the activity could indicate either a slow‑slip release of strain on the fault or the gradual unlocking of a locked fault segment, both of which could raise the risk of a larger event.

He noted that if the micro‑quakes increase in frequency or magnitude toward M4‑5 within a week, the region should become more concerned. While statistical models suggest a forthcoming quake is more likely to be below magnitude 7, he stressed that Istanbul must prepare for a potential magnitude 7 or larger earthquake, given the city's population and economic significance. The expert called for continuous observation and reinforced the need for robust building‑stock retrofitting and preparedness measures.