Marmara seismic risk: Geologists debate fault line activity

Geologists are providing differing assessments regarding the seismic risk in the Marmara region following recent minor tremors.

Professor Naci Görür noted that recent shallow, small-scale seismic activity on the Küçükkuyu Fault indicates continued tension within the southern branch of the North Anatolian Fault. However, he emphasized that the primary expectation for a major earthquake remains focused on the northern branch of the fault line. He cautioned that small tremors should not be viewed as direct precursors to the expected large-scale event.

In contrast, Professor Şener Üşümezsoy challenged prevailing scientific views regarding the fault lines in the Marmara Sea. He argued against the classification of certain structures, such as the line extending from Büyükçekmece and Yeşilköy to Tuzla, as active, describing such interpretations as a major geological error. Üşümezsoy maintained that there are no unruptured faults left in North Marmara and suggested that the magnitude of a potential earthquake in the Marmara Sea would not exceed 6.5.