Massachusetts experts warn proposed Census rules could exclude noncitizens

Proposed changes to the U.S. Census Bureau regulations for the 2030 decennial census could significantly impact Massachusetts' population count and federal funding. During a Senate Committee on the Census hearing, experts warned that new rules—which would limit the count to U.S. citizens and green card holders—could exclude a large portion of the state's population.

Susan Strate of the UMass Donahue Institute estimated that the exclusion of noncitizens could result in the loss of up to 641,000 people from the census count. While approximately 75,000 to 100,000 green card holders might still be included, the remaining noncitizen population represents about 9% of the state. Strate noted that losing this many people would be comparable to not counting the city of Boston entirely or losing the combined populations of Worcester, Springfield, Cambridge, Lowell, and Melrose.

In addition to noncitizen exclusion, the proposals include a three-month enumeration period and requirements to prove residence through tax records, which may also affect how “snowbird” populations are counted. Because the decennial census determines congressional representation and levels of federal funding, lawmakers expressed concern over the potential for severe inaccuracies in state data.