Mathematical model predicts 2026 date based on 1960 population study

In 1960, researchers Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot published a paper in the journal Science titled ‘Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A. D. 2026’. The date was not a prophecy of an apocalypse, but rather a result of a mathematical model regarding human population growth.

By analyzing historical data, the researchers used a hyperbolic growth model to demonstrate what would happen if the population growth trends observed over the previous two millennia continued without change. The model suggested that the population would mathematically approach infinity by the year 2026.87, which corresponds to November 13, 2026.

The authors used the provocative ‘Doomsday’ title to highlight the absurdity of the model if such trends were to continue indefinitely. Contrary to the dramatic title, the study was a mathematical experiment intended to show that population growth cannot follow an infinite mathematical curve. Current data shows that the assumption of unlimited acceleration has not materialized, as global population growth rates are now declining.