Mathematical models predict timelines for human extinction

Mathematical models regarding human extinction and population growth are gaining renewed attention on social media. A 1960 model by Heinz von Foerster suggested that exponential population growth could lead to a systemic crash on November 13, 2026, due to resource depletion and environmental collapse. However, modern analysts note that actual population growth rates have slowed significantly due to improved education and family planning.

Separately, the ‘Doomsday argument’ uses probability to estimate the timeline of human extinction. This method posits that current humans represent a random sample of all humans who will ever live. Based on an estimate of 117 billion people having lived so far, some calculations suggest humanity could persist for another 17,100 years. Critics argue these mathematical models fail to account for transformative technological advancements, such as space colonization and medical breakthroughs, which could alter the trajectory of the species.