Mathematical population model sparks discussion over 2026 date

A mathematical model published in the journal Science 66 years ago has resurfaced on social media, sparking discussions regarding the date November 13, 2026. The study, conducted by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot, used historical population data to model growth patterns.

The researchers identified a mathematical singularity—a point where the population would theoretically become infinite—based on the assumption that growth rates would continue to accelerate without constraint. This mathematical outcome led to the term ‘Doomsday’ in the study, but it does not predict a physical destruction of the Earth or the end of humanity.

Modern demographic projections differ significantly from the 1960 model. Current data from the United Nations indicates the global population was approximately 8.2 billion in 2024, with growth dynamics shaped by declining fertility rates and changing life expectancies, rather than the infinite acceleration suggested by the historical mathematical curve.