Meteorologists warn of permanent shifts in summer weather patterns

A study published by HungaroMet, authored by meteorologists Ákos Horváth and Hajnalka Breuer, suggests that current shifts in global atmospheric circulation could lead to permanent changes in summer weather patterns. If atmospheric warming continues, the current circulation state may become permanent, potentially resulting in more frequent and severe droughts.

The research attributes recent extreme summer droughts to the northward shift of the western wind belt and the strengthening of desert anticyclones, which reduced moisture transport to the temperate zone. This lack of moisture decreased cyclone activity, further limiting moisture from the tropics. The resulting conditions created a heat dome effect, where warmer air held more moisture in an unsaturated state, drying out the soil and reducing cloud cover, which in turn intensified solar radiation.

In the Carpathian Basin, the analysis notes that the nearly constant presence of southern-southwestern anticyclones and the northward position of the western wind system resulted in a monotonous northwesterly airflow, contributing to the exceptionally dry and hot conditions.