Mexico forecasts 56 cold fronts for 2026-2027 season

The National Water Commission (Conagua), through the National Meteorological Service (SMN), has forecasted 56 cold fronts for the 2026-2027 season, running from September to May. This figure exceeds the climatological average of 50 recorded between 1990 and 2020.

The upcoming season is expected to be influenced by the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Experts predict El Niño will strengthen during the current rainy season and reach peak intensity toward the end of the year, coinciding with the highest frequency of cold fronts. This phenomenon increases the likelihood of cold air masses moving toward northern and central Mexico, potentially bringing increased humidity and precipitation.

The monthly distribution of the forecasted fronts is as follows: September (3), October (7), November (8), December (9), January (8), February (7), March (6), April (6), and May (2). January is expected to be the month with the highest frequency of these meteorological phenomena. Additionally, an increase in 'Norte' wind events is anticipated, which could lead to intensified winds, higher waves, and precipitation in Gulf of Mexico coastal areas.