Mexico homicide rates drop amid Sinaloa Cartel reorganization

Mexico is experiencing a transformation in its criminal landscape following the internal fracture of the Sinaloa Cartel. While the dispute between factions known as ‘Los Chapitos’ and ‘La Mayiza’ turned Sinaloa into a major violence hotspot starting in September 2024, national homicide rates have seen a significant decline.

President Claudia Sheinbaum reported that the daily average of intentional homicides in Mexico fell by 53% between September 2024 and August, dropping from 86.9 to 40.8 deaths per day. Sheinbaum cited this as a major achievement of her administration.

However, the decline is subject to debate. Opposition leaders, such as Senator Ricardo Anaya, have criticized the government, suggesting potential statistical manipulation. Security experts, including researchers from the Colegio de la Frontera Norte, suggest the reduction may be due to a combination of government action, changes in how violent deaths are recorded, and the reorganization of criminal groups. Specifically, the consolidation of criminal monopolies can reduce the competition that typically drives high levels of violence.