Mexico investment confidence remains low despite improving inflation outlook

Investment sentiment in Mexico remains stagnant despite improving inflation expectations. According to a survey of private sector economic specialists, the general inflation forecast for the end of 2026 has decreased to 3.90%, while core inflation expectations for the same period fell to 3.99%.

For 2027, analysts maintained a general inflation forecast of 3.84% and slightly reduced the core inflation forecast to 3.80%. With the Banco de México interest rate at 6.50% and a 12-month inflation expectation of 4.13%, the ex-ante real rate sits at 2.28%. This remains within the 1.8% to 3.6% neutral territory estimated by the central bank.

Despite these monetary improvements, investment confidence is at a low point. For the second consecutive month, 0% of surveyed analysts considered it a good time to invest, a trend that has persisted for four of the first eight months of 2026. Economic growth forecasts for 2026 were slightly raised to 1.30%, while 2027 projections remained at 1.80%. Analysts identified public insecurity and foreign trade policy conditions as the primary obstacles to growth.