Mexico corn production faces decline amid rising import dependency

Mexico is facing a significant decline in corn self-sufficiency, with projections suggesting that by 2026, national production will only meet approximately 49% of domestic consumption. According to the Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA), production is estimated to reach 23.5 million tons against a demand of 48.2 million tons.

Data from INEGI’s 2025 National Agricultural Survey indicates that white corn remains the country’s primary crop, with a production of 20.4 million tons. However, the agricultural sector is under pressure from climate change and economic factors. Approximately 58.2% of production units reported losses due to weather conditions, while 76.1% cited high input and service costs as a major challenge.

There has also been a notable reduction in the total area planted for major grains. Between 2022 and 2025, the combined surface area for corn, beans, sorghum, yellow corn, wheat, barley, and rice decreased from nearly 11 million hectares to approximately 10.2 million hectares. While bean production has shown growth, other staples like wheat have seen sharp declines.