Mexico public debt projected to rise to 56.4% of GDP by 2030

Mexico's Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) projects that the country's public debt will continue to rise through the end of the current six-year term. According to official documents, debt is expected to reach 56.4 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the end of 2030, up from an estimated 54 percent at the close of 2026.

Analysts from México Evalúa noted that, for the first time in a decade, the budget does not anchor public debt, projecting an upward trend rather than stabilization or reduction. José Luis Clavellina Miller of the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP) suggested that the decision not to anchor the trajectory of the Historical Balance of Public Sector Financial Requirements (SHRFSP) may reflect more realistic assumptions regarding public finance variables.

Projections indicate that the debt will not only increase through the end of the current administration but is expected to reach 56.5 percent of GDP by 2032.