Mexico economy projected to grow modestly in 2026 as inflation eases

Mexico GDP forecast inflation expectations commerce services tourism Citi survey Bankaool outlook

The Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism (Concanaco Servytur) reported that Mexico's commerce, services and tourism sector expanded 2.5% in the second quarter of 2026, outpacing overall GDP growth of 1.5% and becoming the main driver of the country's economic recovery. Inflation slowed to 3.37% in the same quarter, down from 4.59% in the first quarter, while fixed investment rose 5.9% and foreign direct investment increased 10.4%.

Bankaool issued the most optimistic GDP forecast among 35 surveyed institutions, projecting a 1.6% expansion for 2026, above the Bank of Mexico’s own estimate of 1.11%. The bank attributed the stronger outlook to heightened consumption and tourism linked to the 2026 World Cup.

A Citi survey of private‑sector analysts showed the median expectation for Mexico’s 2026 GDP growth improve to 1.2% (up from 1.1% previously) and the median inflation forecast fall to 4.02% (down from 4.09%). The underlying inflation median was 4.0%. The same survey indicated that most participants do not anticipate a change in the central bank’s reference rate in the short term.

Entities

Bank of Mexico (Banxico) · Bankaool · Banxico · CONCANACO SERVYTUR · Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF) · Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) · Mexico · Octavio de la Torre

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[○ 1 SOURCE] Commerce, services and tourism sector grew 2.5% in Mexico's second quarter of 2026, outpacing overall GDP growth of 1.5%. www.liderempresarial.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Bankaool forecasts Mexico's GDP to grow 1.6% in 2026, the highest among 35 surveyed institutions. elceo.com
[● 2 SOURCES] The median underlying inflation expectation for Mexico in 2026 from the Citi survey is 4.0%. vanguardia.com.mx · www.elfinanciero.com.mx
[● 2 SOURCES] The median expectation from a Citi survey for Mexico's 2026 GDP growth is 1.2%, up from 1.1% previously. vanguardia.com.mx · www.elfinanciero.com.mx
[○ 1 SOURCE] Banxico's own forecast for Mexico's 2026 GDP growth is 1.11%. elceo.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Fixed investment in Mexico increased 5.9% and foreign direct investment rose 10.4% in the second quarter of 2026. www.liderempresarial.com
[● 2 SOURCES] The median inflation expectation for Mexico in 2026 from the Citi survey is 4.02%. vanguardia.com.mx · www.elfinanciero.com.mx
[○ 1 SOURCE] Mexico's inflation rate fell to 3.37% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 4.59% in the first quarter. www.liderempresarial.com