Mexico's Q2 GDP projected to grow 1.3% as industrial activity rebounds
A Reuters poll of 11 analysts forecasts that Mexico's gross domestic product expanded 1.3% seasonally adjusted in the second quarter, ending a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter. On an annual basis, GDP is expected to have risen 1.5%, up from a 0.2% increase in the previous quarter. The rebound is attributed mainly to a revival in secondary sectors—manufacturing, mining and construction—while services continued modest growth. The International Monetary Fund recently cut its 2024 growth projection for Mexico to 1.2% from 1.6%; the Mexican government says it anticipates a better performance, with the Ministry of Finance estimating 2024 GDP growth between 1.8% and 2.8%. A preliminary estimate of the second‑quarter GDP figure is scheduled for release on Thursday.
Entities: IOAE · International Monetary Fund · Itau · Mexico · Mexico Ministry of Finance
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 4 SOURCES] Mexico's Ministry of Finance expects GDP growth of 1.8%‑2.8% in 2024. (Statement from Mexico's Ministry of Finance cited in the poll)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Mexico's first‑quarter GDP contracted 0.6%. (Reuters poll of 11 analysts)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Mexico's statistics agency will release a preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday. (Reuters report)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Mexico's second‑quarter GDP likely grew 1.3% seasonally adjusted. (Reuters poll of 11 analysts (median forecast))
- [● 4 SOURCES] The International Monetary Fund lowered its 2024 growth forecast for Mexico to 1.2% from 1.6%. (IMF announcement cited in the poll)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Itau said the expected improvement reflects a rebound in industrial activity and continued moderate growth in services. (Comment from Itau cited in the poll)
- [● 4 SOURCES] The Q2 recovery is driven by manufacturing, mining and construction sectors. (IOAE indicator cited in the poll)
- [● 4 SOURCES] Annual GDP growth for Mexico is estimated at 1.5% in the poll. (Reuters poll of 11 analysts)