Mexico nears 60% debt-to-GDP limit as fiscal warnings intensify

Mexico's public debt is projected to reach about 60 % of gross domestic product by the end of 2026, according to the Institute of Mexican Executives in Finance (IMEF). The agency cites a fiscal deficit close to 5 % of GDP and an annual growth rate of just 1.1 % as drivers of the rising debt burden.

Moody’s has warned that a slowdown in federal revenue collection is pressuring state and municipal budgets, with many jurisdictions receiving less than expected from federal participation. At the same time, Franklin Templeton analysts caution that if Mexico’s low growth and high deficit persist, the country could lose its investment‑grade rating before the end of the current administration.

In response to financing needs, the Treasury has issued a ten‑year Udibon to refinance internal debt, while economists critique the country’s fiscal strategy as failing to generate sufficient revenue and containing structural flaws. Together, these developments underscore mounting concerns over Mexico’s fiscal sustainability and its ability to secure affordable financing.