Middle East security landscape shifts amid maritime threats and changing U.S. role

The security landscape in the Middle East is undergoing a fundamental shift characterized by proxy warfare, maritime threats, and a decline in traditional deterrence. Geopolitical analyst Massimiliano D’Amore notes that energy security in the Gulf is increasingly dependent on the consent of regional actors. For instance, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority now requires ships to disclose ownership and cargo to grant transit permits, creating significant sanctions risks for operators.

Simultaneously, Houthi forces have implemented blockades affecting Saudi oil routes, such as the Yanbu route, which saw a massive increase in throughput via Bab el-Mandeb to avoid Hormuz. This shift suggests that Gulf energy security may rely on the permission of the very actors the region's defenses were designed to deter.

Analyst Trita Parsi argues that the era of relying on the United States as a regional security guarantor is ending. Observations of recent conflicts between Yemen and Saudi Arabia suggest that Washington’s support has become limited to intelligence and target identification rather than direct military intervention. This perceived decline in American deterrence, coupled with the vulnerability of U.S. military bases to Iranian strikes, has led to calls for a new regional security system based on collective responsibility among Middle Eastern powers.