Migration routes shift in Tunisia and Libya amid increased security

Migration patterns in North Africa are shifting due to increased security measures and European cooperation. In Tunisia, arrivals in Italy have dropped significantly from nearly 100,000 in 2023 to fewer than 20,000 in 2024, continuing a downward trend into 2025 and 2026. This decline is attributed to reinforced coastal surveillance, the dismantling of camps, and increased cooperation with the European Union. However, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime suggests that the demand for passage remains high, with repression merely compressing and displacing migration routes rather than eliminating them.

Simultaneously, Libya is increasingly functioning as a long-term confinement zone for migrants. The convergence of strict European security policies and Libya’s internal political divisions has transformed the country into a buffer that protects northern Mediterranean shores. While international bodies deny official plans to settle migrants permanently in Libya, field indicators suggest the country is absorbing hundreds of thousands of refugees, creating a paradox where security-focused cooperation may undermine Libya’s social stability and sovereignty.