International Energy Agency flags copper and lithium deficits through 2035 amid rising projects
The International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 warns that supply deficits for copper and lithium will persist through 2035. It projects a 25 % global copper shortfall and continued lithium gaps, driving price rebounds and highlighting supply‑chain vulnerabilities, especially in refining and export‑restricted minerals.
New mining projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia are expected to add about 650 000 tonnes of copper capacity, with expansions such as the Kisanfu mine (CMOC) and the $2 billion Lumwana extension (Barrick Gold) helping to narrow the deficit. However, the outlook notes that geopolitical events – notably the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and China’s ban on sulfuric acid exports – have cut acid supplies needed for leaching, threatening copper output in the DRC and Chile.
In parallel, European infrastructure firm HOCHTIEF (part of Spain’s ACS Group) has deepened its partnership with Germany‑focused Vulcan Energy, investing €169 million and taking on EPCM duties for the Lionheart lithium project. The project aims to supply lithium for 500 000 electric vehicles per year and positions the consortium as a cornerstone investor in Europe’s largest lithium production effort.
Analysts also forecast lithium price swings of up to 30 % in 2024, while uranium prices may rise around 20 %, underscoring the broader economic impact of critical‑mineral market dynamics on battery supply chains, energy storage, and related sectors.